Original-Research: DEMIRE AG (von NuWays AG)

Original-Research: DEMIRE AG - von NuWays AG

Einstufung von NuWays AG zu DEMIRE AG

Unternehmen: DEMIRE AG
ISIN: DE000A0XFSF0

Anlass der Studie: Update
Empfehlung: HOLD
seit: 23.01.2024
Kursziel: 1.20
Kursziel auf Sicht von: 12 Monaten
Letzte Ratingänderung: 
Analyst: Philipp Sennewald

Annual portfolio revaluation in line with expectations
 
Yesterday, DEMIRE published an ad-hoc following a draft valuation from
Savills. The external surveyor is currently performing the annual valuation
of DEMIRE’s investment properties as of 31 December ’23. Based on the
draft, the company currently expects that the fair value of the investment
properties will decline by 12-14% on a like-for-like basis, translating
into an absolute devaluation in the range of € 127-154m. This compares to
our estimate of a € 135m like-for-like devaluation.
 
In light of the ongoing general market headwinds, especially in the office
market (59% of DEMIRE's portfolio), this does not come as a surprise and
should have been expected by the market. Notably, this does not include any
transaction-related devaluations, e.g. properties sold below book value. As
of 9M ’23 those stood at € -12.9m (eNuW FY '24: € -30m).
 
Despite the significant yoy decline in value, we do not expect that the
valuation-trough has been reached yet, as we conservatively estimate
another slight devaluation of 5% in FY ‘24e. Although the office investment
market has shown a sequential improvement in Q4 (+12% volume qoq), this
happened on very low levels (c. 25% below the 10y average). In combination
with a struggling general economy, we hence expect headwinds to remain,
especially in B-locations, throughout 2024, although the pressure should be
easing.
 
Importantly, the company’s operations and hence the FY guidance are not
effected, as management continues to expect rental income of € 78-80m
(eNuW: € 79.4m) and FFO of € 35-37m (eNuW: 35.7m).
 
That said, managements main focus remains on the refinancing of the
company’s € 499 corporate bond, which is going to mature in October. As
outlined in our previous update, a solution looks set to be announced in
the course of Q1 as talks with bondholders are progressing.
 
Although uncertainty remains high, the cash inflow from the disposal as
well as an easing interest rate environment following declining swap rates,
the tide has turned a bit towards DEMIRE’s favor again, in our view.
 
Still, as visibility continues to be low regarding the outcome of the
refinancing process, we reiterate our HOLD recommendation with an unchanged
PT of € 1.20 based on NAV and DDM.

Die vollständige Analyse können Sie hier downloaden:
http://www.more-ir.de/d/28723.pdf
Die Analyse oder weiterführende Informationen zu dieser können Sie hier downloaden
www.nuways-ag.com/research.

Kontakt für Rückfragen
NuWays AG  - Equity Research
Web: www.nuways-ag.com
Email: research@nuways-ag.com
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/nuwaysag
Adresse: Mittelweg 16-17, 20148 Hamburg, Germany
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Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.
Offenlegung möglicher Interessenskonflikte nach § 85 WpHG beim oben analysierten Unternehmen befinden sich in der vollständigen Analyse.
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-------------------übermittelt durch die EQS Group AG.-------------------


Für den Inhalt der Mitteilung bzw. Research ist alleine der Herausgeber bzw. 
Ersteller der Studie verantwortlich. Diese Meldung ist keine Anlageberatung
oder Aufforderung zum Abschluss bestimmter Börsengeschäfte.